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Hillsborough County Commission District 2, serving areas around New Tampa and the University of South Florida, has been in Republican hands for years, including for the past several under Ken Hagan.
But as of June, Republicans only outnumber Democrats in the District by 500 voters.
And an analysis of the district maps from before new boundaries were adopted following the 2020 census, and the current map following redistricting, shows a big swing for Democrats in the district.
President Joe Biden narrowly won the district in 2020, but under the new map, would have performed more than five percentage points better.
– Janelle Irwin, Florida Politics